글로벌 트렌드 2020(영어판)

美 국가정보위원회 지음

투나미스 2020년 01월 15일 출간

작품소개

책소개

What is Global Trends?

Every four years since 1997, the National Intelligence Council has published an unclassified strategic assessment of how key trends and uncertainties might shape the world over the next 20 years to help senior US leaders think and plan for the longer term. The report is timed to be especially relevant for the administration of a newly elected US President, but Global Trends increasingly has served to foster discussions about the future with people around the world. We believe these global consultations, both in preparing the paper and sharing the results, help the NIC and broader US Government learn from perspectives beyond the United States and are useful in sparkling discussions about key assumptions, priorities, and choices.

목차

Executive Summary
Methodology
Introduction

The Contradictions of Globalization
An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy
The Technology Revolution
Lingering Social Inequalities
Fictional Scenario: Davos World

Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape
Rising Asia
Other Rising States?
The “Aging” Powers
Growing Demands for Energy
US Unipolarity―How Long Can It Last?
Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana

New Challenges to Governance
Halting Progress on Democratization
Identity Politics
Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate

Pervasive Insecurity
Transmuting International Terrorism
Intensifying Internal Conflicts
Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict?
The WMD Factor
Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear

Policy Implications

Graphics and Tables

China’s and India’s Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US
When China’s and India’s GDPs Would Exceed Today’s Rich Countries
Telescoping the Population of the World to 2020
China’s Rise
Projected Rise in Defense Spending, 2003？2025
Fossil Fuels Will Continue to Dominate in 2020
An Expanding European Union
Number of Religious Adherents, 1900？2025
Key Areas of Radical Islamic Activities Since 1992
EU: Estimated and Projected Muslim Population, 1985？2025
Global Trends in Internal Conflict, 1990-2003

Special Topics
The 2020 Global Landscape
Mapping the Global Future
What Would an Asian Face on Globalization Look Like?
What Could Derail Globalization?
Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon
The Status of Women in 2020
Risks to Chinese Economic Growth
India vs. China: Long-Term Prospects
Asia: The Cockpit for Global Change?
Global Aging and Migration
Could Europe Become A Superpower?
The Geopolitics of Gas
Eurasian Countries: Going Their Separate Ways?
Climate Change and Its Implications Through 2020
Latin America in 2020: Will Globalization Cause the Region to Split?
Organized Crime
Cyber Warfare?
How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Move Forward?
International Institutions in Crisis
The Rules of War: Entering “No Man’s Land”
Post-Combat Environments Pose the Biggest Challenge
Is the United States’ Technological Prowess at Risk?
How the World Sees the United States

책 속으로

Mapping the Global Future

How we mentally map the world will be different in 2020. Traditional geographic groupings will increasingly lose salience in international relations. Since the end of the Cold War, scholars have questioned the utility of the East vs. West concept that emerged in the late 1940s as an intellectual justification for American engagement in Europe. Eurasia as a concept supplanting the former Soviet Union seems irrelevant as many former Soviet members go their own way and the prospect of Moscow reasserting control seems improbable. The usefulness of the West as a concept has been questioned by the growing philosophic divisions between the US and Western Europe over sovereignty and multilateralism and the increasing power on the world scene of traditionally non-Western powers.

As with the East-West divide, the traditional North-South faultline may not be a meaningful concept for the world in 2020 owing to globalization and the expected rise of China and India, which have been considered part of the “South” because of their level of development. Traditional issues of North-South inequalities, trade, and assistance will certainly keep coming to the fore, but some high-growth developing countries, especially China and India, probably will be among the economic heavy-weights or “haves.” They will not be “Western” in the traditional sense but also may not be seen as representative of the underdeveloped or still developing countries. China, in particular, may see itself as having been restored as a great power after several centuries of decline.

Divisions other than economic may also shape how we view the world. We anticipate that religion will play an increasing role in how many people define their identity. For many societies, divisions between and within religious groups may become boundaries as significant as national borders. We particularly see Christian-Muslim divides in Southeast Asia, splits within the Muslim world between Shia and Sunni communities, and islands of potential religious or ethnic disaffection in Europe, Russia, and China as figuring prominently in the 2020 geographic outlook.

One current concept that may still hold true in 2020 is that of an increasing arc of instability ranging from Southeast Asia, where the possibility exists of growing radical Islam and terrorism, to Central Asia, where we see the possibility of “failed,” non-democratic states. The arc includes many Middle Eastern and African countries, some of whom may have fallen further behind or have only just begun to connect with the global economy. Globalization above all will have replaced the former divide among the industrialized West; Communist East; and the developing, non-aligned, or Third World. New alignments instead will be between those countries, or even parts of countries or hubs, that are integrating into a global community and those that are not integrating for economic, political or social reasons. For those mega-cities or hubs that are the engine behind globalization, the financial and telecommunications links they forge with each other may matter as much or more than national boundaries.

출판사 서평

The NIC Global Trends project involves extensive research and consultations with people inside the US government and around the world. We reviewed key assumptions and trends, starting with an examination of regions that was aggregated to identify broader global dynamics. We explored the implications of various trends and discontinuities over the near term (5 years) and long term (20 years). We made extensive use of analytic simulations to explore future trajectories and developed multiple scenarios to describe how key uncertainties and emerging trends might combine to produce alternative futures.

작가정보

저자(글) 美 국가정보위원회

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) serves as the US Intelligence Community's center for the long-term strategic analysis. Since 1979, the NIC has served a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities―as well as a facilitator for outreach to outside experts. The NIC's National Intelligence Officers, drawn from government, academia, and the private sector, are the IC's senior substantive experts on a range of issues and work under the auspices of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The NIC covers the regions of the world as well as functional topics, such as economics, security, technology, cyber, terrorism, and the environment. The NIC coordinates Intelligence Community support for US policy deliberations while producing papers and formal National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on critical national security questions.