계획가와 정책가를 위한 비용편익분석론

김홍배 , 윤갑식 , 이현경 지음

박영사 2024년 09월 30일 출간 국내도서 : 2024년 08월 31일 출간

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제1장 서론
1. 정책의 비용 - 편익 분석이란? ············································································ 2
2. 자원의 배분: 보이지 않는 손과 보이는 손 ························································· 4
3. 이 책의 구조와 내용범위 ···················································································· 7

제2장 자원배분과 사회복지
1. 서론 ·················································································································· 12
2. 소비자선택이론 ································································································· 12
3. 경제적 효율성 ··································································································· 25
4. 잠재적 파레토 향상 ·························································································· 34
5. 시장간섭의 필요성 ···························································································· 37
6. 요약 ·················································································································· 48

제3장 정책분석의 전개과정과 구조
1. 서론 ·················································································································· 52
2. 벤저민 프랭클린의 분석과정 ············································································· 52
3. 정책분석의 5단계 과정 ····················································································· 56
4. 요약 ·················································································································· 79

제4장 결과분석법
1. 서론 ·················································································································· 82
2. 편익 - 비용비와 순편익 ····················································································· 83
3. 순현재가치법 ····································································································· 91
4. 내부수익률 ······································································································ 105
5. 요약 ················································································································ 110

제5장 할인율의 선택과 표준화법
1. 서론 ················································································································ 114
2. 할인율의 종류 ································································································ 116
3. 할인율의 선택 ································································································ 126
4. 할인율과 인플레이션 ······················································································· 131
5. 표준화법 ········································································································· 136
6. 요약 ················································································································ 144

제6장 정책비용과 편익의 가치화: 시장가격
1. 서론 ················································································································ 148
2. 편익과 시장가격 ····························································································· 150
3. 소비자 잉여 ···································································································· 155
4. 보상변화와 동등변화 ······················································································· 169
5. 생산자 잉여 ···································································································· 178
6. 정책의 총편익 ································································································ 181
7. 요약 ················································································································ 186

제7장 비용과 편익의 계량화: 잠재가격
1. 시장가격과 잠재가격 ······················································································· 188
2. 독점하에서의 시장가격 ··················································································· 194
3. 시장은 존재하지만 가격이 왜곡되어 있는 경우 ·············································· 195
4. 시장가격이 존재하지 않는 경우 ····································································· 206
5. 요약 ················································································································ 214

제8장 선형계획법과 잠재가격
1. 서론 ················································································································ 216
2. 정책분석방법의 구분 ······················································································· 217
3. 선형계획법이란? ····························································································· 219
4. 선형계획법에서의 잠재가격 ············································································· 227
5. 잠재가격과 쌍대변수 ······················································································· 231
6. 선형계획법의 적용 예 ····················································································· 235
7. 요약 ················································································································ 244

제9장 정책비용과 편익의 가치화: 비시장재효과
1. 서론 ················································································································ 248
2. 비시장재화의 가치 ·························································································· 249
3. 비시장재화 가치측정에 관한 이론 ·································································· 251
4. 비시장재화의 가치화 ······················································································· 255
5. 조건부가치측정법을 이용한 비시장재효과 가치화 ··········································· 259
6. 요약 ················································································································ 270

제10장 예비타당성조사제도와 분석방법
1. 서론 ················································································································ 274
2. 재정사업에 대한 예비타당성조사제도 ····························································· 275
3. AHP기법을 이용한 종합평가 ·········································································· 286
4. 우리나라 예비타당성조사제도 운영현황 ·························································· 299
5. 요약 ················································································································ 303

참고문헌 ·············································································································· 304
색인 ····················································································································· 306

책 속으로

초판 서문
계획이나 정책에 투입되는 비용은 하늘에서 뚝 하고 떨어지는 것이 아니므로 효율적으로 사용해야 하는 것이 원칙이다. 그리고 비용의 효율적인 사용은 기본적으로 신중한 선택을 통해 이뤄진다.
계획이나 정책의 과정은 크게 목적과 목표 설정, 대안제시 및 대안선택 그리고 집행의 3단계로 구성된다. 여기서 목적과 목표를 달성하기 위해 제시된 대안들이 서로 차이가 크지 않다면 신중한 대안선택은 별 의미를 갖지 못한다. 그러나 현실에서 보면 대안들은 내용과 편익 및 비용측면에서 큰 차이가 있으므로 선택에 신중을 기해야 한다(물론 대안선택뿐만 아니라 목적과 목표 설정과 집행과정에서도 신중한 선택이 이루어져야 한다).
계획이나 정책은 사회의 복지를 증가시킬 때만이 의미를 갖는다. 이를 다른 말로 표현하자면, 투입되는 비용보다 발생하는 편익이 더 클 때, 계획이나 정책은 의미가 있고 타당한 것이다. 오늘날 비용 - 편익분석에 관한 관심이 높아졌다. 이는 자원의 효율적 활용에 대한 사회적 관심이 그만큼 높아진 것이라 할 수 있다. 그리고 관심이 높아진 만큼 분석의 범위와 내용 그리고 분석방법까지 복잡해지고 다양해지고 있다.
오래전에 필자는 비용 - 편익분석에 관한 책을 출간했었다. 내용과 범위가 제한적이어서 늘 부족한 책이라 생각했었는데, 이번에 동아대학교 윤갑식 교수와 동의대학교 이현경 교수와 함께 기존의 내용을 보강하고 범위도 확장하여 새롭게 책을 출간하게 되었다. 이제는 중견학자로 사회의 여러 곳에서 활발한 활동을 하고 있는 윤교수와 신진학자로 연구에 열심을 내는 이 교수가 함께 이 책을 출간하게 되어 참으로 기쁜 마음이다. 이 책은 분명 독자들에게 비용 - 편익분석에 관해 보다 실질적이고 폭넓은 지식을 제공할 것이라 믿어 의심치 않는다.
이 책은 총 10장으로 구성되었다. 제 1장에서는 비용 - 편익분석의 개념과 시장경제에서 계획이나 정책이 갖는 의미에 대해 그리고 제 2장에서는 자원배분에 관한 기초이론과 시장실패 및 정부의 시장 간섭의 필요성을 설명하였다. 제 3장에서는 비용 - 편익분석의 구조와 전개과정을 5단계로 구분하여 설명하였다. 비용 - 편익분석은 상식을 체계화하는 과정이라고 종종 표현하기도 한다. 이 면을 고려한다면 제 3장이 이 책에서 가장 중요한 장이라고 할 수 있다.
제 4장은 결과분석법을 다루었다. 결과분석법이란 계획이나 정책의 모든 효과가 정확하게 측정되고 가치화되었다는 전제를 바탕으로 의사결정자가 최적의 대안을 선택하는 방법이다. 비용 - 편익분석은 장기간 동안 사회 전체를 대상으로 이루어진다.
따라서 분석에서 시간의 투자가치는 기본적으로 중요하다. 특히 사회 구성원들 모두가 동의할 수 있는 할인율, 이른바 사회적 할인율에 대한 설명과 선택에 대해서도 설명하였다. 그리고 일관성 있는 결과를 위해 분석자가 취할 수 있는 방법인 표준화 법도 소개하였다.
제 6장에서는 계획과 정책으로 인해 나타나게 되는 효과를 가격의 변화를 이용하여 화폐가치로 측정하는 방법과 적용에 대해 설명하였다. 참고로 시장에서 가격이 존재한다는 것은 바로 그 효과가 시장재효과(market good effect)임을 가리키는 것이다.
그러므로 제 6장에서 설명된 방법은 시장재효과의 가치를 측정하는 방법이라고 할 수 있다.
제 7장에서는 재화나 서비스의 진정한 사회적 가치를 나타내는 잠재가격(shadow price)에 대해 설명하였다. 시장가격이 존재한다고 해서 그 가격이 진정한 사회적 가치를 나타낸다고 할 수 없다. 왜냐하면 시장은 다양한 환경에 의해 왜곡될 수 있기 때문이다. 또한 잠재가격이란 대부분 시장에서 직접 관찰되는 가격이라기보다는 시간을 투입하여 도출해야 하는 가격이다. 이에 제 8장에서는 선형계획법을 이용해서 잠재가격을 도출하는 방법에 대해 설명하였다,
제 9장은 비시장재효과(non-market good effect)의 가치 측정방법을 다루었다. 여기서 독자들이 명확하게 이해해야 할 것이 있는데, 그것은 바로 시장이 존재하지 않는 효과를 가치 없는 효과로 단정해서는 안 된다는 것이다. 왜냐하면 비시장재효과는 단지 시장가격이 존재하지 않는 것이지 가치 자체가 없다는 것이 아니기 때문이다. 이에 제 9장에서는 환경정책을 중심으로 비시장재효과의 가치를 조건부가치측정법(contingent valuation method)을 이용하여 측정하는 방법에 대해 설명하였다.
마지막으로 제 10장은 우리나라의 예비타당성조사제도에 대해 설명하였다. 예비타당성조사는 국가 재정의 투자효율성을 높이기 위해 대규모 재정사업을 대상으로 신규투자에 대한 타당성을 평가하는 제도이다. 예비타당성조사에서는 여러 평가기준을 계층분석과정(analytical hierarchy process, AHP) 기법을 이용하여 종합적으로 타당성을 평가하고 있다. 이에 제 10장에서는 AHP 기법에 대한 개념과 적용방법에 대한 설명도 제공하였다. 참고로 다수의 평가기준이 제시될 때 의사결정자가 이용할 수 있는 기법이 바로 AHP기법이다.
이 책은 기본적으로 계획가와 정책가를 위한 책이며, 도시계획과 정책 분야에서 공부하는 대학생과 대학원생 그리고 실무자들에게도 유용한 책이라고 할 수 있다. 아무쪼록 이 책이 학생들과 계획이나 정책 수립과 관련하여 고민하는 모든 이에게 조금이라도 도움이 되었으면 하는 마음이다.
앞서 언급하였듯이 이 책이 출간하는 데 수고를 아끼지 않은 윤갑식 교수와 이현경 교수에게 다시 한번 감사하며, 이들이 앞으로 우리 분야의 발전에 많은 기여를 하길 바라는 마음이 간절하다. 마지막으로 부족한 책을 출간해 주신 박영사 안종만·안상준 대표님과 여러 담당자들께 깊은 감사의 마음을 전하는 바이다.

2024년 7월
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김홍배, 한양대학교 명예교수

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- 토지주택연구원 원장
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- 한양대학교 도시대학원장
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한양대학교 도시공학과 공학박사

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- 동아대학교 도시공학과 교수
- 대한국토 · 도시계획학회 상임이사

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- 인천연구원 연구위원
- 충남연구원 책임연구원

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- 동의대학교 도시공학과 교수
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