주가지수와 아파트가격지수 사이의 선형 및 비선형 인과관계 분석

• 영문명: Linear and Nonlinear Causal Relationship between KOSPI Index and Apartment Price Index
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 김상배(Sangbae Kim) 정태훈(Taehun Jung)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제12권 제5호, 517~534쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.10.30

영문 초록

The purpose of this paper is to examine the linear and nonlinear causal relationship between the stock price index and the apartment price index by adopting the linear Granger causality test and Hiemstra and Jones’ (1994) non-parametric nonlinear causality test. Our sample period ranges from January 2006 to May 2016. Our empirical results show that the stock price index Granger causes the apartment price index, but not vice versa. This result suggests the existence of the wealth effect in the Korean real estate and stock markets. When we include the business cycle dummy to consider the possible effect of the business cycle change, our finding is quantitatively similar. Finally, we examine whether or not our nonlinear causality results are driven by the volatility effect. To do so, we filtered our data using the multi-variate GARCH model. After filtering our data using the GARCH model, the Hiemstra and Jones test no longer provides evidence of significant nonlinear causality from the stock price index to the apartment price index, implying that the source of the nonlinear causal relationship between the stock price index and the apartment price index is the volatility effect.

키워드

Apartment Price Index Nonlinear Causality Stock Price Index