When Disasters Strike, Do Missiles Fly?: Rethinking North Korea's Provocations, Timing, and the Limits of Diversionary Theory

• 발행기관: 한국학술연구원
• 저자명: Heesoo Yun Sok chun Chang
• 간행물 정보: 『Korea Observer』Vol 57, No 3, 327~360쪽, 전체 34쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2026.09.30

국문 초록

Existing studies on North Korea's military provocations mainly use Diversionary Theory but they often fail to fully consider the timing of these actions. This study examines the link between natural disasters and provocations through logistic regression and time difference analyses. It highlights a dual pattern: provocations increase immediately after a disaster but decrease over the medium-to-long term. These findings challenge the traditional crisis-to-provocation model, suggesting that Diversionary Theory requires revision. This study reveals that the crisis response strategies of authoritarian regimes are more complex and dynamic than previously thought. It provides a new theoretical foundation for improving our understanding and prediction of these regimes' crisis responses, advocating for an evolutionary approach to revising Diversionary Theory.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Theoretical Background

Ⅲ. Research Design

Ⅳ. Analysis Results

References

키워드

North Korea Natural Disasters Military Provocations Diversionary Theory Authoritarian Regime