황금, 설탕, 이자(金糖利; Gold, Sukkar, Máš)

바빌로니아의 수수께끼 編 (上-1) 券

이원희 지음

하움출판사 2024년 07월 31일 출간

작품소개

책소개

『황금, 설탕, 이자』. 제목이 뭔가 이상하다고 느끼실 것입니다. 하지만 제목이 상징하는 것은 책을 읽으시다 보면 자연스럽게 알게 될 것입니다. 나아가 황금, 설탕, 이자, 이 세 가지가 결합하면 무슨 일이 일어났는지도 알게 될 것입니다. 예컨대 헨리 키신저는 『세계 질서』에서 1948년 이후 세계 질서가 등장한 사실은 지적했었지만, 왜 이 질서가 등장했는지는 설명하지 않았습니다. 하지만 필자는 1948년 이후 세계 질서가 왜 등장했는지 황금, 설탕, 이자의 결합을 통해 설명할 것입니다.
특히 책을 읽다 보면 이 세 가지의 결합은 왜 서양이 동양을 지배하게 되었는지, 미국과 중국 충돌의 승자는 누가 될 것인지, 미래 인류의 발전 방향은 어떻게 흘러가야 하는지도 알려 주는 중요한 요인이라는 것을 알게 될 것이라 생각합니다. 즉 재러드 다이아몬드는 『총, 균, 쇠』가 서양이 동양을 지배한 요인이라고 주장했지만, 필자는 총, 균, 쇠가 아니라 『금, 당, 리』의 결합이야말로 서양이 동양을 지배한 원인이라고 감히 주장할 것입니다.
이 책은 역사책입니다. 하지만 단순히 과거에 무슨 일이 일어났는지를 기록한 역사책은 아닙니다. 따라서 역사적 사실을 기록하는 과정에서 약간의 오류 가능성은 있을 수 있습니다. 다만 필자는 황금, 설탕, 이자라는 특정 관점에서 과거 인간 사회의 역사를 추적하고, 이를 통해 현재의 시사점을 찾아내려고 노력했습니다.

목차

I. 프롤로그 – 황금의 지배, 무역의 지배, 금융의 지배, 세계의 지배

01 로마와 미국
1) 로마 제국의 아바타, 미국 ··············································································· 1
Fun Fun 상식: 옥타비아누스 황제의 암살? ······························································· 7
2) 그러나, 미국은 로마와 다르다! ····································································· 13

02 미국의 위기와 달러
1) 1990년대, 중국의 세계 시장 편입 ································································· 16
2) 드골의 달러 패권 공격 ················································································· 22
3) 유로화 = 기축통화?······················································································ 26
4) 아직은 참을 수 있는 달러의 가벼움 ······························································· 46

03 미국의 무역과 달러
1) 길더화와 파운드화 ······································································································ 53
2) 기축통화 힘의 근원 ······················································································ 56

04 뱅킹의 힘 - 달러 패권의 원천
1) 바빌로니아의 에기비 가문, 무역상 그리고 뱅커 ············································· 58
2) 중국, 인도, 이슬람은? - 뱅킹의 태동과 고도화················································ 60
3) 페니키아, 그리스, 로마는?············································································ 71
4) 로마의 멸망과 중세 암흑시대 ········································································ 74
5) 이슬람의 황금시대와 머천트 뱅커의 등장 ······················································· 76
6) 2세대 머천트 뱅커와 지리상 발견 ································································· 80
7) 2세대 머천트 뱅커와 산업혁명 ······································································ 85
8) 무역 = 달러, 라마수의 탄생 ·········································································· 88

05 달러 패권 = 세계 패권
1) 1달러 지폐와 호루스의 눈 ············································································ 94
2) 이집트의 파루크 1세와 이란의 모사데그 ························································ 97
3) 이집트의 나세르 ························································································ 107
4) 이탈리아의 마테이와 독일, 일본의 부상 ······················································· 110
5) 미국의 헨리 키신저와 사우디아라비아의 파이잘 사우드 국왕 ························· 114
Fun Fun 상식: 사우드 왕가의 우여곡절 독립 ·············································· 117
6) 로널드 레이건과 이부카 마사루 ·································································· 122
7) 브래디 계획과 후쿠야마의 자유주의 종언 ····················································· 127
8) 조지 소로스와 아시아 금융위기 ·································································· 131
9) 이라크의 사담 후세인과 미국의 마크 저커버그 ············································· 132
10) 미국의 역린과 이란 제재 ·········································································· 136
11) 「황금, 설탕, 이자」와 키신저의 세계 질서 ··················································· 139

06 중국의 전략적 선택 - 자본시장과 외환시장의 통제
1) 위안화 절하 위기? ····················································································· 142
2) 중국 당국과 헤지펀드의 엔드 게임 ······························································ 144
3) 위안화 절하, 용서 받지 못한 자 ··································································· 152

07 중국의 최후 선택 - 위안화의 ◯◯◯!
1) 위안화 패권을 향하여 ················································································ 158
2) ◯◯◯ 위안화, ◯◯◯ 위안화, 위안화 ◯◯◯ ············································· 161
3) 최후의, 그러나 가장 확실한 수단, 전쟁 ························································ 170

08 위안화 ◯◯◯의 전제 조건
1) 「중국제조 2025」와 「신품질 생산력」 ·························································· 171
2) 현대전의 맥락 ··························································································· 173
3) 러시아와 함께 춤을 ···················································································· 177
4) 황금 사냥꾼 ······························································································ 198
5) 비둘기 연준 ······························································································ 200
6) 일대일로: 아시아! 아프리카!! 유럽!!! ························································· 201
7) 미국과 마창 시합? 정치, 항공모함, 중화사상, 희토류, 남중국해······················ 212

09 미국과 중국 - 제국 충돌(Empires Clashes)의 승자는?
1) 무역전쟁: 백년 전쟁, 임진왜란, 태평양 전쟁 ················································ 261
2) 제국의 충돌: 상호확증파괴의 공포, 체스와 바둑 ··········································· 268
3) Great Rapprochement ············································································ 281
4) 투키디데스의 함정 ····················································································· 290
5) 황금 = 뱅킹? - ① 신대륙의 황금 ② 오일 달러 ③ 일본과 중앙아시아 ·············· 292

인물정보

저자(글) 이원희

저자 이원희<br /><br />서울대학교 경제학과, 서울대학교 행정대학원, JD at<br />University of New Hampshire School of Law,<br />Attorney at Law in New York State<br />행정고시 41회, 산업자원부 자원정책과, 투자진흥과, 국무총리실<br />심사평가심의관실, 지식경제부 부품소재총괄과,대한무역투자<br />진흥공사 파견근무,우정사업본부 대체투자팀장,산업통상<br />자원부 수출입 과장, 산업통상자원부 무역규범과장, 무역<br />위원회 덤핑조사과장, 現 산업통상자원부 서기관<br /><br />저서<br />외국인직접투자 얼마나 알고 계십니까? (2002, 공저)<br />한일 투자협정 해설 (2003, 공저)<br />대체투자 파헤치기 (상) - 세계 경제동향, 헤지펀드 編(2014)<br />대체투자 파헤치기 (중) - 타이타노마키의 서막: PEF 編(2015)<br />대체투자 파헤치기 (하) - 타이타노마키의 2막: 주주행동주의, 주요 대기업 그룹 해부 編(2015)<br />황금, 설탕, 이자 – 바빌로니아의 수수께끼 編(上-1) 券 (2024)<br />황금, 설탕, 이자 – 바빌로니아의 수수께끼 編(上-2) 券 (2024)