Understanding Oil Prices

Salvatore Carollo 지음

Wiley 2011년 11월 22일 출간

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It-s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people ~ including politicians, financial analysts and pundits ~ will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no ~ quite the opposite in fact.Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today-s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country-s, consortium-s, cartel-s, or corporate entity-s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors.In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he tra

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Foreword xiiiPreface xvQuick Reference Guide xixList of Figures xxiiiList of Tables xxviiList of Boxes xxix1 TheWorld Crude Oil Paradoxes 12 The Market Events from 2008 to 2011 7World Energy Policy 8The Financial Crisis and the Oil Market 10Fundamentals or Financial Speculation? 17Demand/Supply of Gasoline and Gasoil 21WTI &~ Brent Differential 243 Evolution of the Price of Crude Oil from the 1960s up to 1999 291960&~1980: The Oil Monopoly and the Two Crises in the 1970s 30The 1980s: The Gradual Disappearance of OPEC 33The Price War 351985&~2000: From the Introduction of Brent as an International Benchmark to the Clean Air Act 37The Suicide of OPEC 40The Start of the Free Market 41The Consequences of the Environmental Turnaround 444 Changes in the Market for Automotive Fuels 45Evolution of Environmental Demand 45Gasoline and its Components 50Reforming 51Cracking 52Alkylation 53Isomerization 53Refiners Walk the Tightrope 53The Fiscal Policy of the Industrialized Countries Regarding Fuels 555 World Oil Flow 63Transformations in the Downstream 66World Supply Structure 706 The Classical Model of the International Oil Market 737 The Short-term Model of the International Oil Market 818 The Brent Market 89The Sale and Purchase Contract 90The Forward Market for Brent (15 day Brent Contract) 94The IPE Brent Market 100The Divorce Between Oil Price and Oil 1029 Principal Uses of the Forward and Futures Markets 105Tax Spinning 105Benchmarking 105Hedging the Price Risks 106Speculations on Operational Flexibilities at Loading 114Market Structure: Contango and Backwardation 117Procedures at the Loading Terminals 11910 Problems of the Brent Forward Market 12311 The European Refinery Crisis 13112 Conclus

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저자(글) Salvatore Carollo

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SALVATORE CAROLLO graduated in engineering from the University of Palermo, where he also served as a lecturer and researcher. In 1975 he began working at eni; both in Italy and abroad where he was active in various sectors of the petroleum downstream, refining, market research, supply and trading of crude oil. Since 1995 he has been based first in Amsterdam and then in London as the manager of the Upstream Marketing Department, where he is responsible for the commercial relations with several producing countries and eni partners in various joint ventures. Within this area he provides support to eni corporate university, through teaching activities at the Mater MEDEA and organising the annual Oil Market and Commercialization of Crude Oil seminar. He is often called in as an expert by various institutions in the oil sector to provide his own analysis on the dynamics of oil prices.