The Age of Aging

George Magnus 지음

Wiley 2012년 11월 27일 출간

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The year 2008 marks the beginning of the baby boomer retirement avalanche just as the different demographics in advanced and most developing countries are becoming more pronounced. People are worrying again that developments in global population trends, food supply, natural resource availability and climate change raise the question as to whether Malthus was right after all.The Age of Aging explores a unique phenomenon for mankind and, therefore, one that takes us into uncharted territory. Low birth rates and rising life expectancy are leading to rapid aging and a stagnation or fall in the number of people of working age in Western societies. Japan is in pole position but will be joined soon by other Western countries, and some emerging markets including China. The book examines the economic effects of aging, the main proposals for addressing the implications, and how aging societies will affect family and social structures, and the type of environment in which the baby-boomers' children will grow up.The contrast between the expected old age bulge in Western nations and the youth bulge in developing countries has important implications for globalization, and for immigration in Western countries - two topics already characterized by rising discontent or opposition. But we have to find ways of making both globalization and immigration work for all, for fear that failure may lead us down much darker paths. Aging also brings new challenges for the world to address in two sensitive areas, the politicization of religion and the management of international security. Governments and global institutions will have to take greater responsibilities to ensure that public policy responses are appropriate and measured.The challenges arising within aging societies, and the demographic contrasts between Western and developing countries make for a fractious world - one that is line with the much-debated 'decline of the West'. The book doesn't flinch from recog

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Dedication.Acknowledgments.Preface.Chapter 1: Introducing a new age.Everyone is affected everywhere.The demographic debate laid bare.Differing prospects for richer and poorer nations.Demographics and other global trends.Endnotes.Chapter 2: Population issues from Jesus Christ to aging and climate change.Population take-off, Malthus, and Marx.Fertility debate gathers significance.Falling fertility, family structures, and modern times.Climate change, food, oil, and water join the fray.Food and oil supplies.Water shortages too?What happened to the dominant species?Endnotes.Chapter 3:The age of aging.Global population changes.Your world party guestlist.Three stages of ages.Aging and dependency.What about the workers?Dependency ratios for the old and the young are not comparable.The demographic dividend for poorer countries.Conclusions.Endnotes.Chapter 4: The economics of aging&-what is tobe done?How the rich world isaging.Will labor shortage scrimp growth?Is it possible to boost the supply of workers?Raising participation and immigration.Women to work.Can we strengthen brain as well as brawn?Working longer to retirement.Youth trends sap economic strength.How much immigration?Productivity is the holy economic grail.Will we be able to finance retirement?Saving less with age, saving less anyway.Changing pension schemes.Retirement and savings in the United States.Endnotes.Chapter 5: Coming of age: United States, Japan,and Europe.Aging in advanced economies.Accounting for growth in Japan, western Europe, and America.Removing the sex and age barriers to work Barriers to female employment.Barriers to older workers in employment.Later retirement is more than just a matter of law.A Singaporean model for all?Who&-s for change?Endnotes.Chapter 6: Will aging

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&"A very readable analysis of the broad-ranging consequences of demographic trends, supplemented by quickly grasped charts and tables.&" (Choice, April 2009)Recent developments in global population trends characterized by low birth rates and rising life expectancy are leading to a graying population worldwide. Aging is bound to have pervasive effects on economic growth, inflation, house and equity prices, public spending and taxation, education and healthcare provision, and wealth distribution. (BCC Orient, Sep 08)Macbeth tells Seyton of many things that should accompany old age, such as &-honour, love, obedience, troops of friends&- but, on a practical note, he concedes that he would look to have, in their stead, &-curses, not loud but deep.&- Perhaps, the &-curse&- for today&-s old threatens to come in the form of financial anguish they&-d leave behind for the middle-aged &-baby boomers&- marching in legions towards retirement, and their descendents, as a new book on &-how demographics are changing the global economy and our world&- highlights. (The Hindu, 29/9/2008)Now according to George Magnus, the senior economic adviser to Swiss bank UBS and the author of a newly published book called The Age of Aging, something similar may be about to happen in Europe and to a lesser extent in the US. (South China Morning Post, 23/10/2008)OLDER job seekers, rejoice. An urban economy like Singaporewill find it easier than rural societies to rehire older workers, says economist George Magnus. It is different in China, where 60 per cent of the people live in the countryside. Rural labour is physical lnd tough, so he says it is very hard to raise the participation of older workers aged 55 to 65. Typically, ageing countries turn to older workers, women and immigrants to replenish their shrinking labour pools. (The Straits Times, 25/10/2008)Mr George Magnus e

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저자(글) George Magnus

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George Magnus is the senior economic adviser at UBS Investment Bank and has held this position since 2005. Before this, he was the bank-s chief economist with effect from the merger between UBS and Swiss Bank Corporation in 1998, leading a team of professional economists to the highest accolades in the Institutional Investor and other industry analyst surveys. His previous responsibilities involved senior macroeconomic and managerial positions in Union Bank of Switzerland, SG Warburg and Bank of America. Mr. Magnus- research is widely known and respected in the financial services community and the business media in the United States, Asia and Europe. He was one of very few to articulate at the beginning of 2007 that a major credit crunch in the United States and the West was likely, with damaging and long-lasting economic consequences around the world. He lives and works in London, is married, and has four children.