Market Sense and Nonsense

Jack D. Schwager 지음

Wiley 2012년 10월 19일 출간

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Bestselling author, Jack Schwager, challenges the assumptions at the core of investment theory and practice and exposes common investor mistakes, missteps, myths, and misreadsWhen it comes to investment models and theories of how markets work, convenience usually trumps reality. The simple fact is that many revered investment theories and market models are flatly wrongm-that is, if we insist that they work in the real world. Unfounded assumptions, erroneous theories, unrealistic models, cognitive biases, emotional foibles, and unsubstantiated beliefs all combine to lead investors astraym-professionals as well as novices. In this engaging new book, Jack Schwager, bestselling author of Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards, takes aim at the most perniciously pervasive academic precepts, money management canards, market myths and investor errors. Like so many ducks in a shooting gallery, Schwager picks them off, one at a time, revealing the truth about many of the fallacious assumptions, theories, and beliefs at the core of investment theory and practice.A compilation of the most insidious, fundamental investment errors the author has observed over his long and distinguished career in the marketsBrings to light the fallacies underlying many widely held academic precepts, professional money management methodologies, and investment behaviorsA sobering dose of real-world insight for investment professionals and a highly readable source of information and guidance for general readers interested in investment, trading, and financeSpans both traditional and alternative investment classes, covering both basic and advanced topicsAs in his best-selling Market Wizard series, Schwager manages the trick of covering material that is pertinent to professionals, yet writing in a style that is clear and accessible to the layman

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Foreword xvPrologue xviiPart One Markets, Return, and RiskChapter 1 Expert Advice 3Comedy Central versus CNBC 3The Elves Index 6Paid Advice 8Investment Insights 11Chapter 2 The Deficient Market Hypothesis 13The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Empirical Evidence 14The Price Is Not Always Right 15The Market Is Collapsing; Where Is the News? 24The Disconnect between Fundamental Developments and Price Moves 27Price Moves Determine Financial News 37Is It Luck or Skill? Exhibit A: The Renaissance Medallion Track Record 39The Flawed Premise of the Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Chess Analogy 40Some Players Are Not Even Trying to Win 42The Missing Ingredient 44Right for the Wrong Reason: Why Markets Are Difficult to Beat 47Diagnosing the Flaws of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 49Why the Efficient Market Hypothesis Is Destined for the Dustbin of Economic Theory 50Investment Insights 52Chapter 3 The Tyranny of Past Returns 55SP Performance in Years Following High- and Low-Return Periods 57Implications of High- and Low-Return Periods on Longer-Term Investment Horizons 59Is There a Benefit in Selecting the Best Sector? 63Hedge Funds: Relative Performance of the Past Highest-Return Strategy 70Why Do Past High-Return Sectors and Strategy Styles Perform So Poorly? 77Wait a Minute. Do We Mean to Imply . . . ? 78Investment Insights 85Chapter 4 The Mismeasurement of Risk 87Worse Than Nothing 87Volatility as a Risk Measure 88The Source of the Problem 92Hidden Risk 95Evaluating Hidden Risk 100The Confusion between Volatility and Risk 103The Problem with Value at Risk (VaR) 105Asset Risk: Why Appearances May Be Deceiving, or Price Matters 107Investment Insights 109C

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저자(글) Jack D. Schwager

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JACK D. SCHWAGER is a recognized industry expert on futures and hedge funds and the author of the widely acclaimed Market Wizards and Schwager on Futures book series. He is currently the co#45;portfolio manager for the ADM Investor Services Diversified Strategies Fund, a portfolio of futures and FX managed accounts. He is also an advisor to Marketopper, an India#45;based quantitative trading firm. Previously, Mr. Schwager was a partner in the Fortune Group, a London#45;based hedge fund advisory firm, which specialized in creating customized hedge fund portfolios for institutional clients, and also spent over twenty years as a director of futures research for some of Wall Street#39;s leading firms.