Effective Groundwater Model Calibration

Mary C. Hill 지음

Wiley-Interscience 2006년 08월 25일 출간

작품소개

책소개

Methods and guidelines for developing and using mathematical modelsTurn to Effective Groundwater Model Calibration for a set of methods and guidelines that can help produce more accurate and transparent mathematical models. The models can represent groundwater flow and transport and other natural and engineered systems. Use this book and its extensive exercises to learn methods to fully exploit the data on hand, maximize the model's potential, and troubleshoot any problems that arise. Use the methods to perform:Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the information content of dataData assessment to identify (a) existing measurements that dominate model development and predictions and (b) potential measurements likely to improve the reliability of predictionsCalibration to develop models that are consistent with the data in an optimal mannerUncertainty evaluation to quantify and communicate errors in simulated results that are often used to make important societal decisionsMost of the methods are based on linear and nonlinear regression theory.Fourteen guidelines show the reader how to use the methods advantageously in practical situations.Exercises focus on a groundwater flow system and management problem, enabling readers to apply all the methods presented in the text. The exercises can be completed using the material provided in the book, or as hands-on computer exercises using instructions and files available on the text's accompanying Web site.Throughout the book, the authors stress the need for valid statistical concepts and easily understood presentation methods required to achieve well-tested, transparent models. Most of the examples and all of the exercises focus on simulating groundwater systems; other examples come from surface-water hydrology and geophysics.The methods and guidelines in the text are broadly applicable and can be used by students, researchers, and engineers to simulate many kinds systems.

목차

Preface.1 Introduction.1.1 Book and Associated Contributions: Methods, Guidelines, Exercises, Answers, Software, and PowerPoint Files.1.2 Model Calibration with Inverse Modeling.1.2.1 Parameterization.1.2.2 Objective Function.1.2.3 Utility of Inverse Modeling and Associated Methods.1.2.4 Using the Model to Quantitatively Connect Parameters, Observations, and Predictions.1.3 Relation of this Book to Other Ideas and Previous Works.1.3.1 Predictive Versus Calibrated Models.1.3.2 Previous Work.1.4 A Few Definitions.1.4.1 Linear and Nonlinear.1.4.2 Precision, Accuracy, Reliability, and Uncertainty.1.5 Advantageous Expertise and Suggested Readings.1.6 Overview of Chapters 2 Through 15.2 Computer Software and Groundwater Management Problem Used in the Exercises.2.1 Computer Programs MODFLOW-2000, UCODE_2005, and PEST.2.2 Groundwater Management Problem Used for the Exercises.2.2.1 Purpose and Strategy.2.2.2 Flow System Characteristics.2.3 Exercises.Exercise 2.1: Simulate Steady-State Heads and Perform Preparatory Steps.3 Comparing Observed and Simulated Values Using Objective Functions.3.1 Weighted Least-Squares Objective Function.3.1.1 With a Diagonal Weight Matrix.3.1.2 With a Full Weight Matrix.3.2 Alternative Objective Functions.3.2.1 Maximum-Likelihood Objective Function.3.2.2 L1 Norm Objective Function.3.2.3 Multiobjective Function.3.3 Requirements for Accurate Simulated Results.3.3.1 Accurate Model.3.3.2 Unbiased Observations and Prior Information.3.3.3 Weighting Reflects Errors.3.4 Additional Issues.3.4.1 Prior Information.3.4.2 Weighting.3.4.3 Residuals and Weighted Residuals.3.5 Least-Squares Objective-Function Surfaces.3.6 Exercises.Exercise 3.1: Steady-State Parameter Definition.Exercise 3.2: Observations for the Steady-State Problem.Exercise 3.3: Evaluate Model Fit Using Starting Parameter Values.4 De

출판사 서평

"This is an excellent textbook that addresses a topic, optimization of multiparameter models, which is of broad interest." (Journal of American Water Resources Association, October 2007)"The book represents a very good combination of long-time expert knowledge and being up to date." (Clean, January 2008)"…a welcome addition to my collection of hydrogeologic books…a valuable reference for ground water scientists who use models." (Ground Water, January-February 2008)

작가정보

저자(글) Mary C. Hill

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MARY C. HILL, PhD, is Project Chief for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and a recipient of the USGS Meritorious Service Award, the ASCE Walter Huber Research Prize, and the NGWA M. King Hubbert Award. Dr. Hill is President of the International Commission for Ground Water. She is Adjunct Professor at the University of Colorado at Boulder and the Colorado School of Mines.CLAIRE R. TIEDEMAN, MS, is a Research Hydrologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, where her work involves calibrating and evaluating models of complex groundwater flow systems, developing methods to evaluate prediction uncertainty, and characterizing flow and transport in fractured-rock aquifers. She is a recipient of the USGS Superior Service Award and an Associate Editor of the journal Ground Water.